Key Points:
Forecasts $76/bbl average for 2025 on moderate surplusMaintains $70-85/bbl range viewRisks skewed to downside due to high spare capacity, potential trade tariffsBrent spreads may be underpricing near-term physical tightness
Geopolitical factors:
Limited risk premium despite Israel-Iran tensionsHigh OPEC+ spare capacity providing bufferIran oil production remains undisruptedMid East conflict keeps supply risks in play
Bottom line: While Goldman sees downside risks dominating, they note 2025 supply glut isn’t guaranteed and year-end could see some upward price pressure.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
