Can SpaceX Deliver Starship On Time for NASA’s 2027 Moon Landing?

SpaceX and NASA are, in many ways, inextricable from one another. But in recent weeks, current and former officials at the space agency—as well as spaceflight industry experts—have questioned where SpaceX can deliver on one of its biggest and boldest contracts to date: A Starship that is able to land astronauts on the Moon as part of NASA’s Artemis 3 mission, currently slated to launch in mid-2027.

In recent weeks, acting NASA head and U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said he would re-open SpaceX’s Artemis 3 contract up to competitors, citing the myriad delays to SpaceX’s Starship development timeline. And speaking at the American Astronautical Society’s von Braun Space Exploration Symposium on Wednesday, former NASA chief Jim Bridenstine praised Duffy’s decision.

“Secretary Duffy, I think, is doing the absolute right thing,” he said, according to SpaceNews.

It’s perhaps no surprise that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk strongly disagrees with Duffy’s assessment. After Duffy revealed his plans to re-open the contract on October 20, Musk proceeded to hurl insults at him via X, insisting that Starship remains the only viable option for delivering the Artemis 3 astronauts to the Moon.

Now, SpaceX says it has devised a “simplified” lunar landing mission architecture that will enable a faster return to the Moon while improving crew safety.

Crunch time for SpaceX

NASA tapped SpaceX to provide the first crewed lunar lander for the Artemis program in 2021, and the company has been working on a modified version of Starship’s upper stage that they dubbed the Human Landing System (HLS), capable of delivering astronauts to and from the lunar surface.

HLS heavily depends on Starship’s development, which has veered off track as a result of three back-to-back failed test flights. Starship Version 3—the next iteration of the megarocket that is supposed to serve as the foundation for the HLS—won’t debut until sometime in 2026, according to SpaceX.

Depending on the timing of Starship V3’s first test flight, SpaceX could have less than a year and a half to perfect the rocket and the HLS if it hopes to launch Artemis 3 by mid-2027.

Where is Starship HLS?

In a company statement on Thursday, SpaceX said it has already achieved 49 milestones “tied to developing the subsystems, infrastructure, and operations needed to land astronauts on the Moon.” This includes work on HLS subsystems such as landing legs, docking adaptors, and Raptor engine tests, but many remaining lander development milestones are tied to test flights.

SpaceX has already begun fabricating a flight-capable Starship HLS cabin that will enable engineers to test the hardware and systems required for a lunar landing, according to the statement. Although the company did not offer details on when the cabin would be completed, it said a long-duration test flight and in-space propellant transfer demonstration should take place in 2026—assuming that Starship V3 remains on track.

Still, Starship HLS has already fallen behind NASA’s original schedule. In July, Lori Glaze, NASA’s acting associate administrator for exploration systems development, said agency officials had expected SpaceX to demonstrate an in-orbit propellant transfer this year, according to Spaceflight Now. Artemis 3 cannot launch until this milestone is met.

SpaceX remains confident

In Thursday’s statement, SpaceX defended its progress on Starship HLS: “Starship continues to simultaneously be the fastest path to returning humans to the surface of the Moon and a core enabler of the Artemis program’s goal to establish a permanent, sustainable presence on the lunar surface,” SpaceX said.

Still, mounting pressure from NASA has prompted SpaceX to re-evaluate its approach.

“In response to the latest calls, we’ve shared and are formally assessing a simplified mission architecture and concept of operations that we believe will result in a faster return to the Moon while simultaneously improving crew safety,” SpaceX said.

SpaceX did not offer specifics on what this simplified mission architecture would entail, and it remains to be seen whether the alternative plan will win back NASA’s confidence. If the contract is reopened, it is possible that a competitor, such as Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin, could swoop in and take over—but that would be a tall order, and NASA has no official plans to select an alternative launch provider at this time.

And SpaceX certainly isn’t going down without a fight.

“SpaceX shares the goal of returning to the Moon as expeditiously as possible, approaching the mission with the same alacrity and commitment that returned human spaceflight capability to America under NASA’s Commercial Crew program,” the company said.

Gizmodo has reached out to NASA and SpaceX for comment.