Offshore Turbines Are Reaching Their Breaking Point

When Hurricane Melissa slammed into Jamaica last week, it tied with two other hurricanes for the highest landfalling wind speeds on record in the Atlantic. This tropical cyclone’s unprecedented strength was fueled by unusually warm sea surface temperatures—a direct consequence of climate change.

Across the world’s oceans, rising ocean temperatures are driving extreme winds. A new study published today in the journal Nature Communications finds that this is a major problem for offshore wind farms. Though turbines are designed to capture the kinetic energy of wind and convert it to electricity, unprecedented wind speeds are pushing them beyond their limits.

The study’s authors, led by Yanan Zhao of China’s Southern University of Science and Technology, say their findings underscore a critical need to adapt offshore wind energy infrastructure to evolving wind extremes—especially in cyclone-prone areas. Not only that, but the world must re-evaluate the locations of offshore wind farms as previously ideal sites become too extreme.

“Offshore wind projects are being developed in regions where extreme wind speeds are intensifying,†co-author Yiheng Tao of The World Bank told Gizmodo in an email. “As countries scale up offshore wind to meet climate and energy goals, integrating climate-resilience metrics into design standards and site selection will be essential to ensure long-term reliability.â€

Too much of a good thing

Higher wind speeds can help wind turbines generate more energy, but only to a certain extent. When wind speeds exceed a turbine’s load limit, this can lead to damage, early decommissioning, and economic losses, according to the authors.

To figure out how wind extremes have evolved over the past several decades, the researchers analyzed hourly wind speed data gathered between 1940 and 2023 across global oceans. This data came from the ERA5 dataset, developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

The analysis revealed that extreme wind speeds have increased in roughly 63% of marine coastal regions since 1940, especially in the northeastern Pacific, North Atlantic, and Southern Westerlies. The authors also found that over 40% of both commissioned and planned offshore wind farms in Asia and Europe have experienced wind speeds that exceed the 84-mile-per-hour (135-kilometer-per-hour) load limit for class 3 turbines.

In the U.S., more than half of planned wind farms—with a total maximum capacity of 50.31 gigawatts—are exposed to extreme winds of 84 to 112 mph (135 to 180 kph).

Time for an adapted approach to offshore wind

The rising prevalence and severity of extreme winds are strongly associated with changes in cyclone activity under global warming, according to the authors.

Above-average sea surface temperatures provide more energy to fuel storm formation and intensification. This not only poses a significant risk to people living in hurricane-prone areas but also threatens a key component of the clean energy transition.

Extreme winds, especially from tropical and extratropical cyclones, are the leading cause of wind turbine failure, the authors state. As global temperatures continue to rise, they call for efforts to mitigate extreme wind damage to offshore wind farms, such as improved risk modeling, revised design standards, more robust turbine engineering, and new siting parameters.

These measures “will be essential to safeguard offshore wind infrastructure and support its long-term expansion,†they say. To avoid the worst impacts of global warming, it’s becoming clear that renewable energy infrastructure will have to adapt to changes that are already in motion.