Airports Are on the Verge of a Flight Cancellation Apocalypse

On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy confirmed that ten percent of flights will be cancelled at 40 unspecified American airports that experience “high volume†starting on Friday, Nov. 7, assuming the government shutdown hasn’t ended by then.

The decision came after a “gut check,†Duffy explained at a press conference. It’s a strong signal that the effect the shutdown is having on air travel is starting to snowball, and that Friday’s cancellations could be the start of a logistical catastrophe on a historic scale.

Air traffic controllers are the federal employees who are normally paid money to understand the position in 3D space of every object at or near a given airport, including and endless parade of flying tubes filled with people and jet fuel.

Detailed demos of the job for laypeople make an air-tight case that it is mind-bendingly stressful. Currently, air traffic controllers are doing this job for free, and if they need money to do things like “eat†or “pay rent,†they’re scrambling to figure something else out.

So there’s been a rash of air traffic controllers “having to call in sick to go earn money elsewhere,†one anonymous air traffic controller told NPR. It’s hard to work multiple jobs, particularly if you work in a field where over 90 percent of workplaces were already understaffed before the shutdown. Also, today, controllers are scheduled to receive their second pay stub without any money attached to it. This is leading to what the FAA has called “immense stress and fatigue,†which sounds about right. 

Duffy warned of the potential for “mass chaos†to ensue earlier this week.

Mass chaos has sort of already begun, with about 5,000 flights to and from U.S. airports delayed in one day this past Sunday. The average flight at LAX was delayed by an hour that same day. It’s on top of that existing mess that 40 airports are going to have ten percent of their traffic eliminated—a plan that won’t be “based on what airline travel has more flights out of what location,†according to Duffy, but “about where is the pressure and how do we alleviate the pressure?â€

In other words, cancellations won’t be coordinated to lessen the impact on travelers, but to relieve the maximum amount of stress on federal workers. The interconnectedness of flights and coordination of plane movements mean the reduction in traffic at a select number of airports will have a ripple effect, causing further cancellations, delays, and missed connections, no matter how hard airlines try to avoid them.

And if you’re flying anytime soon, keep in mind that cancellations and delays aren’t your only worry. “Every single day that this goes on tomorrow is now less safe than today,†National Air Traffic Controllers Association president Nick Daniels told CNN.

It’s also worth noting that the pay situation is the same for TSA workers, so they’re also calling in sick, leading to outrageous lines at airport security checkpoints, reportedly up to four-and-a-half hours long in at least one case.

Thanksgiving is in 21 days, and the Sunday following Thanksgiving is traditionally the busiest travel day of the year in the U.S. About 20 million Americans flew during Thanksgiving weekend last year. The airline lobby Airlines for America wrote in a statement on Oct. 30 that airlines are “expecting a record holiday travel season.â€

The shutdown would have to end very soon for these delays to not impact holiday travel, since according to Daniels it will take “weeks to recover†from the shutdown.

If, on the other hand, the shutdown carries right on through the holiday travel season, workers’ stress and lack of pay will only get worse. Add snowy conditions to all that, and Friday’s decrease in flight traffic could prove to be a small taste of the plunge into travel hell we’re all on the verge of experiencing.