Congrats, Humanity: We’re on Track for Record CO2 Emissions—Again

With the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 30) underway this week, researchers have shared a first look at this year’s carbon emissions data. The findings show that global emissions from fossil fuels are on track to hit a record high in 2025.

The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 130 scientists and published on Wednesday, predicts roughly 42 billion tons (38 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels this year. That’s a 1.1% increase from 2024.

Based on this and other factors, limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels—the threshold set by the Paris Agreement in 2015—will be virtually impossible, the authors conclude. To stabilize the current warming trend, we don’t just need to cut our emissions, we need to bring them down to zero.

In times like these, it’s easy to despair. But the report’s lead author, Pierre Friedlingstein—a University of Exeter professor specializing in global carbon cycle modeling and director of the Global Carbon Budget Office—says the findings should galvanize the world to act now to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

“There is no alternative,†Friedlingstein told Gizmodo. “We have to remain hopeful because we have to tackle the climate change issue.â€

Finding the good amid the bad

Believe it or not, the report isn’t all bad news. While the data suggests that fossil fuel emissions have risen, total global carbon emissions—a combination of emissions from fossil fuels and land use—are projected to be slightly lower than last year.

“There are certainly signs in [the report] that emissions are really starting to slow down their increase or change direction,†said Piers Forster, a professor of physical climate change and founding director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, who was not involved in the study.

Speaking with Gizmodo from COP 30 in Belém, Brazil, Forster pointed to China’s leadership in electrification and renewable energy as a sign that we may be reaching a turning point not just in terms of emissions, but also in the availability of climate solutions.

Though China remains the world’s biggest CO2 emitter, the report finds that its emissions growth has slowed thanks to moderate growth in energy consumption combined with extraordinary growth in renewables. Indeed, China has emerged as a key leader at COP 30 this year, especially in the absence of the world’s second-biggest CO2 emitter: the U.S.

The report also highlights a projected decline in emissions from land-use change—most notably deforestation. This was what tipped the scales on total global carbon emissions this year, slightly offsetting the rise in fossil fuel emissions.

“The deforestation rate is declining in South America, but also in other parts of the world,†Friedlingstein said. “And reforestation is also slowly increasing.†That said, emissions from deforestation and land-use change are still far from zero, he clarified.

Keeping the faith

The report’s findings come with several caveats. First and foremost, looking at the global carbon budget report for a single year is not a good indication of long-term progress—or lack thereof—toward climate goals, Friedlingstein notes. Still, these reports are crucial for keeping the international community on track and informing year-to-year decisions on emission reduction strategies and targets.

It’s also worth noting that the report only looks at CO2 emissions—it does not account for other greenhouse gases such as methane. And for all the progress China has made toward decarbonizing its economy and the reductions we’re seeing in deforestation, the world is still nowhere close to achieving net-zero emissions.

“We’ve still got heaps to go,†Forster said. “I mean, we’ve got greenhouse gas emissions at an all-time high. We’ve got a tiny remaining carbon budget to [avoid] 1.5℃. So we have this huge sense of urgency, we have to get our emissions back down.â€

One of the most alarming findings from the report is that 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1960 is due to climate change itself. Rising global temperatures have reduced the efficiency of land and ocean carbon sinks, essentially weakening Earth’s ability to counteract humanity’s growing emissions. A companion paper published in Nature discusses this finding in greater detail.

In spite of these circumstances, both Friedlingstein and Forster emphasize that hope is key to progress, and progress is our only hope. “There is no plan B,†Friedlingstein said. “Adapting and not doing anything in terms of mitigation is not an option.â€

Though Forster said he is not optimistic based on what the current research shows, he finds hope at the UN climate negotiations. “Cooperation between countries is so important,†he said. “I think there are still actors in every country who do see the threat of climate change and want to make a difference.â€