Category Finance

Exchange rate reaction hard to predict See some risks for Swiss economy due to tariffs As mentioned earlier here, it’s not about tariffs equality or fairness. The reciprocal tariffs formulation is all about addressing the trade deficit. The SNB will have a lot of tinkering to do especially…

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 82 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 70 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 60 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 57 bps (71% probability of no change…

The dollar is falling further in European trading as it fails to find any shelter in the first wave of the market reaction towards Trump’s tariffs. Worries about the tariffs driving the US economy to the brink of a recession are outweighing everything else, with traders clearly not…

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.7% PPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.7% Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in prices for intermediate goods (+0.4%), energy (+0.2%), capital goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is just marginally offset by a decline in…

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As we continue to digest Trump’s tariffs, the dollar looks to be the early onset casualty as it continues to slump across the major currencies board today. But the loonie can also rejoice a bit as Trump didn’t double down on tariffs against Canada in his latest salvo.…

U.S. recession fears are in the air following President Donald Trump’s tariff plan, with prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi indicating heightened concerns the economy will take a hit. On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the chance of the country slipping into recession this year topped 50% for the…

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