Category Finance

No one cared about Bullard when he was at the Fed and no one cares about him now. He says the Fed couldn’t defend 50 bps. “It seems to me the Fed will coalesce around three 25 basis point cuts this year and keep a deeper cut in…

Crude oil inventories -1.630M vs -0.500M estGasoline inventories +0.069M vs +0.240M estimateDistillates inventories +0.125M vs +0.551M estimateCushing -1.979M vs -1.704M last weekrefining utilization -0.7% versus expectations of -1.0%. Previously -0.5% The private inventory data yesterday showed yields of around 2M for crude, gasoline and distillates. The price of…

The Atlanta Fed GDPnow growth estimate for Q3 falls to 2.9% from 3.0% last. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on September 18, down from 3.0 percent on September 17. After this morning’s…

In this video, I take a look at the technical roadmap for traders through the FOMC rate decision. What would increase the bearish bias and why? What would shift the bias more to the bullish side – at least in the short term. With the price lower and…

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US housing starts are due at the bottom of the hour and forecast to rebound to 1.310m after falling to a post-pandemic low last month. The long-term chart highlights the problem: US housing starts are significantly lower than they were in 1980 despite a 47% increase in US…

The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is lower (and the weakest) ahead of the FOMC rate decision which will take place at 2 PM today. At that time, the Fed will not only decide on…

Prior was 1.238m (revised to 1.237m)Starts +9.6% vs -6.8% priorBuilding permits 1.475mM vs 1.396M expectedPermits +4.9% vs -4.0% prior Starts hit a post-pandemic low last month but rebounded nicely here. They’re still far too low for population growth but rate This article was written by Adam Button at…

Treasury yields are up 4 basis points across the curve in a sign of either: The market over-pricing a dovish FedAngst ahead of the Fed decision I tend to think it’s the latter as bond buyers have flooded in over the past two months. US 10s highlight just…

Repositioning looks to be the theme in global markets today. Treasury yields are rising, which indicates worry about the Fed cutting 25 bps instead of 50 bps. However the US dollar is weakening, which indicates the opposite. It all points to more of a position squaring trade. On…