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The greenback is the laggard in trading today and is being pushed lower in European morning trade. USD/JPY is the standout as it nudges under the 140.00 mark but it’s not the only pair on the move. GBP/USD is up 0.5% to near 1.3200 and AUD/USD also up…

It would take a significant shift in the outlook for the ECB to cut in OctoberVery little new information in the pipeline before October meetingThere is no rush to cut ratesThe safest approach is to wait for the outlook to become clearer All this is very much a…

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed…

Services inflation is still resisting for nowOur main concern is services inflation as suchWe don’t have a pre-determined path for ratesWe will decide on a meeting by meeting basis These aren’t anything new and it just reaffirms the policy path that the ECB is on currently. This article…

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed…

Prior €22.3 billion Comparing to last year, the euro area trade balance is showing a surplus of roughly €128 billion from January to July. And that compares to the roughly €4 billion surplus only in the same period last year. Energy price developments are of course a big…

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