- US election imminent – JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump win
- China’s annual parliament is underway – expected to approve more fiscal stimulus measures
- USD/JPY back under 152.00 – prospect of market volatility a headwind for yen carry trade
- European Central Bank speakers on Monday include Patsalides, Elderson, Buch, McCaul
- About that US$3000 gold forecast from Goldman Sachs
- AUD traders heads up – Reserve Bank of Australia meeting underway – statement due Tuesday
- Bank of America bullish crude oil over the next month
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1203 (vs. estimate at 7.1208)
- Australian ANZ Job Advertisements for October +0.3% m/m (prior +2.3%)
- Chinese and Australian commerce ministers met over the weekend
- Sad news for Nikkei traders – Japan is closed for a holiday today
- Australian October Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge +0.3% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- Goldman Sachs reiterated Fed forecast after weak jobs report. Fed to cut by 25bp this week
- Globex is open! Oil gap higher.
- Election (Moldova!): Pro-Western President won 2nd term against Russia-friendly opponent
- ICYMI- US to deploy B-52s, fighter jets, warships to Middle East. Upping the stakes?
- Oil traders – OPEC+ announced it will delay planned December output increase by one month
- Trade ideas thread – Monday, 4 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- USD weaker to open the new forex week – election polls the culprit
- RBNZ highlights geopolitical tensions as a risk to financial stability
- Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 04 November 2024
Weekend:
- OPEC+ agrees to delay December oil output increase
- Final New York Times poll shows razor-tight Presidential race
- Is Apple stock buy or sell?
- Weekly Market Outlook (04-08 November)
- BTCUSD price prediction, looking for another test of the ATH
- Harris odds jump further after influential Iowa poll shows her with a shocking lead
- Three reasons why US presidential odds have tightened
- Crude oil price forecast
- The technical levels in play for the trading week for the major currency pairs.
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: US election, Fed, BoE, RBA, US ISM Services PMI and Canada jobs
The
USD gapped lower in the early hours of trade here in Asia. Early
Monday sees super-thin liquidity as major FX centres open in turn,
first New Zealand, followed by Australia, then Japan and
Singapore/Hong Kong. This progression was interrupted somewhat today
by a Japanese market holiday, which extended thin liquidity trading
another hour or so.
The
weakness for the USD saw fingers pointed at a shock poll in US state
of Iowa showing Harris ahead. It
was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and
2020.
Yen,
EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, all gained ground, as did China’s
yuan. There was a minor retracement, but none of the gaps were filled
and, as I post, the USD remains close to its session low.
Yen
crosses have been a major focus for many months now as cross-currents
from the US economy, Japanese economy, Federal Reserve monetary
policy, Bank of Japan monetary policy, US elections, and the Japanese
election played, and continue to play, out. On Friday USD/JPY hit
highs above 153.00 and today during the session a 150 point drop from
those highs took the pair back to lows circa 151.60.
US
equity index futures rose in Sunday evening (US time) trade.
Oil
prices gained after weekend news that OPEC+ agreed to extend its
voluntary output cuts by another month, through until the end of
December. The cartel had intended to begin returning 180,000 barrels
a day to supply from December, but they will now keep supply
curtailed until the end of 2024.
China’s
annual parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), began
today. It runs through November 8. More fiscal stimulus measures are
expected to be announced at its conclusion on Friday.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
