Rate cuts by year-end
Fed: 43 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 125 bps
ECB: 29 bps (86% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 136 bps
BoE: 40 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 121 bps
BoC: 27 bps (92% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 103 bps
RBA: 8 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 57 bps
RBNZ: 57 bps (70% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/30% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 160 bps
SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
BoJ: 6 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 34 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
