After Ravaging Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa Isn’t Done Yet. Here’s What’s Next

Hurricane Melissa slammed into Cuba as a Category 3 storm early this morning after wreaking havoc across Jamaica. The storm—the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record—is on track to make landfall in the Bahamas by the afternoon.

Melissa weakened to a Category 2 storm after making landfall in the province of Santiago de Cuba around 3 a.m. ET, according to the National Hurricane Center. Despite the intensity downgrade, the storm will continue to cause severe flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging hurricane-force winds across Cuba through Wednesday morning, the NHC states.

The center of the hurricane has reemerged off the northern coast of eastern Cuba and will track into the eastern Bahamas later today. Cuba’s eastern terrain took a toll on Melissa, and the eye is no longer visible in the latest satellite imagery—a sign of temporary weakening.

Once the hurricane is back over water, reconnaissance aircraft should be able to get a clearer picture of its intensity. As of 5 a.m. Wednesday morning, the NHC expects Melissa to remain a strong hurricane as it crosses into the Bahamas, bringing powerful winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rain to the islands. Turks and Caicos can expect tropical storm conditions.

Forecasters still do not expect this storm to make landfall in the U.S. as it continues on its northwestward path over the next several days.

The storm that stunned meteorologists

The evolution of this storm over the course of its journey through the Caribbean has been nothing short of astounding. Melissa was still a tropical storm early Saturday until it encountered exceptionally warm waters and low wind shear in the central Caribbean Sea, triggering ultra-rapid intensification.

By Monday morning, Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane with a maximum sustained wind speed of 185 miles per hour (297 kilometers per hour). The storm made landfall in Jamaica Tuesday afternoon as the strongest hurricane in the island nation’s recorded history. Its slow pace intensified the danger of its impact, drawing out the deluge of rain it dumped on the island.

People in Jamaica woke up to devastation Wednesday morning, with roughly three-quarters of the island still without power and much of its western side still underwater, the BBC reports. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared the country a “disaster area” on Tuesday.

After moving offshore of Jamaica, Melissa rapidly reorganized on its way to Cuba. The storm briefly recovered its Category 4 status before weakening to a Category 3 prior to its second landfall. As of 10:30 a.m. ET, the storm was heading toward the Bahamas and on track to arrive around 2 p.m. ET. Preliminary reports from Cuba indicate that damages are extensive.

Melissa has smashed records over the past several days. It is now the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Atlantic, tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane for both wind speed and pressure. It’s also the strongest hurricane recorded this late in a hurricane season.

A dangerous new normal

Melissa is a textbook example of how climate change fuels more dangerous hurricanes. Rising ocean surface temperatures provide more heat to fuel cyclone formation and intensification.

“Currently in the Caribbean, ocean temperatures are close to 30°C [86°F], around 1.5°C [2.7°F] warmer than normal, contributing to Hurricane Melissa having higher wind speeds than would otherwise be expected,” Samantha Hallam, an oceanographer and climate scientist at Ireland’s Maynooth University, told the Science Media Centre today.

While Hurricane Melissa may be in a league of its own now, that likely won’t be the case for long. As global temperatures continue to rise, hurricanes will continue to break records, with warm-water regions like the Caribbean at increasing risk.